Tuesday, 22 July 2014

Lord Ashcroft Con-Lab marginal polling - the demographics

Lord Ashcroft published his latest battleground polls of the fourteen Conservative-held seats with Labour in second place. I am going to use this post to describe the demographics of those fourteen seats.

First of all, I start with the demographic composition of the fourteen constituencies taken together. The chart below shows the proportion of each of 69 demographic groups in the fourteen seats (coloured bars). The hollow bars are the proportion of each of these demographic groups across the whole of England & Wales. I have described these 69 demographic groups elsewhere on the blog. See this link: if you want the full descriptions.

Before I go on to describe this composition I want to present the most recent voting behaviours of these demographic groups, in the same type of charts. These following charts show how the vote share for each of the main parties was correlated with demographics in the 2014 local elections. Of course there needs to be some caution attached to these correlations as the local elections are low turnout elections. However the correlations are broadly in keeping with election results from 2005, 2010 and 2012. I will take each party in turn. The scores above the x-axis show a positive correlation (i.e. vote share for the party went up) and scores below the line show a negative correlation.

These charts, taken together, give us some clues to the groups which are being drawn to UKIP from Labour. For example, take a look at the K50 demographic group. This group is made up of older families in low-value housing in former industrial areas. Geographically this group is found most strongly in places like Rotherham, Doncaster, the West Midlands, south Wales, parts of the North-West and North-East. In other words, Labour areas. Unsurprising therefore that they vote Labour (see chart), but a good proportion of them are voting UKIP.

Or how about E21s (Middle aged families living in less fashionable inter war suburban semis)? Some of this group are voting Labour, but many of them are going over to UKIP. Again this group is concentrated in the Midlands, North West, south Wales and the North-East. There are twice the national average of this group in Stockton South for example.

Without any further ado I want to display the demographic profiles of the fourteen Ashcroft marginals, in alphabetical order:

Amber Valley. Poll numbers: Labour 37%, Con 33%, UKIP 22%, LD 3%.

Broxtowe: Labour 39%, Con 30%, UKIP 18%, LD 7%.

Cardiff North: Labour 41%, Con 30%, UKIP 12%, LD 6%.

Great Yarmouth: Labour 28%, Con 33%, UKIP 31%, LD 3%.

Hendon: Labour 49%, Con 34%, UKIP 9%, LD 4%.

Lancaster & Fleetwood: Labour 41%, Con 27%, UKIP 18%, LD 4%.

Morecambe & Lunesdale: Labour 37%, Con 34%, UKIP 18%, LD 6%.

Sherwood: Labour 39%, Con 30%, UKIP 23%, LD 4%.

Stockton South: Labour 38%, Con 35%, UKIP 19%, LD 4%.

Thanet South: Labour 29%, Con 29%, UKIP 33%, LD 4%.

Thurrock: Labour 30%, Con 28%, UKIP 36%, LD 2%.

Warwickshire North: Labour 41%, Con 30%, UKIP 21%, LD 2%.

Waveney: Labour 37%, Con 28%, UKIP 22%, LD 3%.

Wolverhampton South West: Labour 46%, Con 30%, UKIP 15%, LD 5%.

Monday, 21 July 2014

Demographic change since 2001 - persons born outside the EU

The map below shows the 533 parliamentary constituencies of England. The data shows the increase in the proportion of residents in each constituency who are born outside the European Union since 2001. I have used data from the 2001 and 2011 Census as my source. Click on the constituency to reveal a pop-up showing the % increase in your constituency: